Randy Stapilus: What turned the 5th blue? Anatomy of a House flip
The pre-eminent example of change came in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District, where the parties flipped control, the vote having shifted just enough to make that possible.
A close look at the results showed some other shifts as well, extending all the way down to the county level. But the 5th District race is a good place to put the focus.
The district crosses the Cascades south of Portland and includes part or all of six counties: Clackamas, Deschutes, Linn, Marion, Multnomah and Jefferson. But the way it is configured, Clackamas and Deschutes hold the most sway.
Taken as a whole, the district leans slightly Democratic. But only slightly.
Two years ago, in the first election of this newly configured district, Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer defeated Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner 50.9% to 48.8% in a two-way race. This year she lost to Democrat Janelle Bynum 47.6% to 45.2% in a five-way race.
What accounted for the difference?
One obvious element was the presence of three other candidates — Andrea Thorn Townsend (Pacific Green), Sonja Feintech (Libertarian) and Brett Smith (Independent). The gap between the two leading contenders ran less than 10,000, and the other three candidates combined for more than 28,000, with Smith accounting for more than 18,000 of them.
That in itself did not appear to be the deciding factor, though.
DeRemer pulled fewer votes in 2024 than she did in 2022 — 177,483 compared to 178,813. But Bynum managed to handily outpace McLeod-Skinner 186,952 to 171,514, even with the additional candidates.
Another factor may have played a larger role. In contrast to much of the country, both Clackamas and Deschutes counties edged more Democratic this year.
Among Oregon’s 36 counties, 11 registered a measurable shift in preference between the two major parties in 2024.
The three largest shifts, based on the vote for president, trended Republican. But they came in lightly populated counties which long have voted strongly Republican: Jefferson, 6.5%; Umatilla, 5.8%, and Morrow, 5.1%.
Eight counties became more Democratic. Wheeler and Lincoln were among them, with shifts just over 4%, but they are so lightly populated a small number of residents can have an outsized impact.
Among larger counties, the biggest Democratic shift came in fast-growing Deschutes at 2.1%. That shift also may have been reflected in the county’s choice of Democrat Anthony Broadman to claim the seat currently occupied by Sen. Tim Knopp, a Republican who can’t serve again due to his participation in the Senate GOP’s 2023 walkout.
The district’s other dominant county, Clackamas, did not shift further Democratic, but still preferred Democrats for all top jobs, including the presidency. Its voters also ousted Republican Tootie Smith from the county commission chair.
Multnomah was another major contributor of votes in the district. And though already extremely Democratic, it actually moved even more so in 2024.
Taken together, the shifts were enough to cost Chavez-DeRemer her seat in Congress. Oregon’s overall Democratic leaning may also help explain why incumbent Democrats in Oregon’s other two close-run districts, Val Hoyle in the 4th and Andrea Salinas in the 6th, both improved their margins from two years ago.
Bynum had twice beaten Chavez-DeRemer in past legislative races. She also fared well in a series of debates. And in a district leaning even slightly Democratic, the October campaign visit from Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson may have been ill-advised.
On election day, Chavez-DeRemer seems to have faced a hill too steep to climb, despite positioning herself as a moderate frequently willing to cross the aisle.
Bynum’s win returns the 5th to the Democratic control it had enjoyed since 1996. In the process, it gives the Democrats five of the state’s six congressional districts, leaving only Eastern Oregon’s sagebrush 2nd in GOP hands.
About the writer: Randy Stapilus is a former reporter and editor who’s turned to writing and publishing books from Carlton. He has devoted his career to covering Northwest politics and government. In addition to publishing books through the Ridenbaugh Press, he maintains a blog at www.ridenbaugh.com and continues to write for news publications, including the Oregon Capital Chronicle, https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com, where this piece originated.
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