Randy Stapilus: Four regions feature most of the tight legislative races
About the writer: Guest writer Randy Stapilus is a former reporter and editor who has turned to writing and publishing books from Carlton. He has devoted his career to covering politics and government in Oregon, Washington and Idaho. In addition to publishing books for himself and others through the Ridenbaugh Press, he maintains a blog at www.ridenbaugh.com. He also continues to write for print and online news publications, including the Salem-based Oregon Capital Chronicle, https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com, where this piece originated.
More than three-quarters of this year’s Oregon legislative races aren’t likely to be competitive. But that still leaves some competitive transition areas in parts of the state.
The odds are that nearly all of Oregon’s competitive legislative races in November will happen in four areas around the state: the coast, Salem area, eastern Portland suburbs and Bend area. They accounted for nearly all of the tight races of 2022, and they happen to be the parts of Oregon in political transition.
In the last Senate race in 2020 and the last House race in 2022, the coast accounted for two races in which the winner garnered less than 55% of the vote.
Republican Dick Anderson won in the Senate District 5 with 49.3% of the vote and Republican Cyrus Javadi in House District 32 with 51.1%. Both of them are running again this year against new Democratic opponents.
As incumbents, they’re probably favored. But not by much.
The southern coast has trended Republican for many years, but the northern coast remained largely Democratic until recent years. The Senate tenure of former Democrat Betsy Johnson, who ran as an unaffiliated candidate for governor in 2022, may have served as a bridge for transition.
The area has even drawn national attention for a political shift. Nationally, Tillamook County is included among the 206 “pivot counties” — ones that voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, but switched to Republican Donald Trump in 2016.
Columbia County was also included, and it joined Tillamook in remaining red in 2020. This election may tell us to what degree that change is hardening.
In the last cycle, the Salem area accounted for five close races. One of those, in the 10th Senate District, isn’t on the ballot because incumbent Democrat Deb Patterson won a four-year term in 2022. But our House races could be close again, with all four of the 2022 winners — Republicans Kevin Mannix and Tracy Cramer, and Democrats Paul Evans and Tom Andersen — back again with new opponents.
Salem, once Oregon’s largest clearly Republican city, has become its most hotly contested piece of real estate.
In the last election, Anderson and Evans won by just over 54% each, which was more than Mannix and Cramer garnered. Spending and other indicators suggest those two face a slightly higher risk this time around, compared with Anderson and Evans.
But all four races are clearly competitive, as neither party can safely call Oregon’s capital city its own.
The suburban area east of Portland, extending from Troutdale to Hood River in the north and down to Oregon City and Wilsonville in the south, is not that large geographically.
However, it includes a lot of people. And in the last cycle — 2020 for the Senate and 2022 for the House — it was home to at least eight close races, one in the Senate and the rest in the House.
Senate District 25 District was won by Democrat Chris Gorsek, who is seeking re-election. Six of the House races were won by Democrats: Courtney Neron in the 26th, Janelle Bynum in the 39th, Annessa Hartman in the 40th, Hoa Nguyen in the 48th, Zach Hudson in the 49th and Ricki Ruiz in the 50th. The 52th District elected Republican Jeff Helfrich, now serving as House minority leader.
All but Bynum, now running for the U.S. House, all are seeking re-election. And all but Nguyen, again facing Republican John Masterman, have new opponents.
This area trended Republican a generation ago, but shifted toward a purplish hue and seems to have stayed there.
Finally, there’s the Bend area, which also has been in political transition. It accounts for two seats that were close calls last time and could be again.
One, the Bend-centered 27th Senate District, is held by Republican Tim Knopp. But after participating in the 2023 Republican Senate walkout, he is barred from serving another term by a constitutional provision on legislative absences.
Knopp won four years ago by a thin 50.7% of the vote, less than what Republicans once received in that area. Given shifts in the population and a strong campaign, Democrat Anthony Broadman looks like a probable winner this time over Republican Michael Summers, but the margin is not likely to be large.
The 53rd House District, which Democrat Emerson Levy won last time by about 500 votes, again looks like it might be one of the closest in the state.
Outside these four regions, only one legislative seat, the 7th House District around Springfield, held by Democrat John Lively, appears competitive.
His Republican opponent, Cory Burket, raised nearly $78,000 as of Tuesday, compared with about $112,000 for Lively, and is running an active campaign. Still, Lively probably has the edge.
The only other close contest last time, the 29th House District that covers Hillsboro and Forest Grove, already has a winner. Democratic incumbent Susan McLain is running unopposed this time.
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