Assad's fall further weakens ambitions of Hezbollah, Iran
The fall of President Bashar Assad will not only affect the 24 million Syrians who lived — and largely suffered — under his brutal rule. The impact will also reverberate in Iran to the west and Lebanon to the east.
The collapse of Assad’s government delivers yet another blow to its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, already reeling from an Israel conflict serving to weaken its capabilities and decimate its leadership. But civilian rejoicing is widespread in Lebanon, particularly among the 1.5 million refugees who fled Syria to escape Assad’s brutality and a 13-year civil war.
As an expert on Lebanese history and culture, I expect strong ripple effects from the upheaval in Syria. The two countries’ modern histories are intertwined, and the Assad family has intervened in Lebanon repeatedly during its 54-year rule, mostly to the detriment of the Lebanese people, economy and stability.
Since its formation in the early 1980s, Hezbollah has consistently benefited from strong support from Syria.
There were moments of tension, notably during the Lebanese civil war, but Hezbollah has generally been able to rely on Syria for arms, training and easy land access to Iran.
This arrangement was reciprocal. So when Assad’s rule was challenged in 2011, triggering a civil war, Hezbollah fighters crossed into Syria to bolster government troops.
Despite managing to become the most powerful paramilitary entity in Lebanon, though, Hezbollah has seen its fortunes suffer of late. The recent war with Israel severely weakened the group, forcing it to accept a ceasefire deal that includes a path toward disarmament.
An Israeli incursion to punish Hezbollah caused billions in economic damage, claimed the lives of about 3,700 non-combatants and displaced about 1.2 million more — about one-fifth of Lebanon’s population. That eroded support for Hezbollah to the point where calls are being openly made for the group to cease paramilitary activities.
It’s no coincidence then that the rebel advance leading to Assad’s ouster began the same day the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire was signed.
Hezbollah’s forces were depleted, and it had pulled Syria-based units back to reinforce Lebanon’s southern border. Iran had also come under Israeli attack, rendering it stretched too thin to fill the gap.
The domino effect resulted in the unraveling of Iran’s “axis of resistance.” It has clearly lost its once firm grip over Syria and Lebanon.
The fact that the fall of Assad coincides with potential end of both Syria’s civil war and the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah alliance is fitting, as commencement of the war helped anchor the three-way relationship in the first place.
In 2011, the Arab Spring — a series of pro-democracy and human rights protests that started in Tunisia — reached Syria. Anti-Assad protests broke out in Daraa and soon spread to Homs, Hama and Damascus.
The Syrian government responded with brutality, ordering its soldiers to fire on the protesters, while detaining and torturing thousands of men and boys.
An international outcry followed, but the Syrian government remained in power with the support of Iran and Hezbollah. In fact, both Hezbollah and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps joined Assad’s campaign to suppress his own people.
For Iran and its Hezbollah proxy, this helped further the “Iranization” of the region — that is, the spread of the ideology of the Iranian revolution and conversion of Syria and Lebanon into Shia states.
Syria is predominantly Sunni rather than Shia.
But under the Assad family, it was ruled by an Alawite minority — a group that practices a branch of Shia Islam. Hezbollah shared a Shia orientation and swore allegiance to Iran’s supreme leader in its 1985 manifesto.
The Palestinian cause was another unifying factor for the trio. The post-1979 revolutionary Iran credo of “death to Israel” is a sentiment shared by the Assad regime and Hezbollah fighters.
Syria, Iran and Hezbollah were further unified by a desire to govern the region. And they shared economic interests, including the trafficking of illegal drugs, notably Captagon, an amphetamine-type stimulant mass-produced in Syria under Iranian patronage.
With the help of Hezbollah and its control of Lebanon’s airport and seaports, the drug has become widely available in the Gulf states.
Its highly addictive nature posed a real threat in the Arab world, and Assad used that to pressure Saudi Arabia into advocating for the reinstatement of Syria’s membership in the Arab League in 2023. In return, Syria agreed to redirect its drug trafficking elsewhere.
With Hezbollah’s defeat and Assad’s fall of the Syrian regime, the “Iranization” of the region has, at the very least, stalled.
Nevertheless, 54 years of Assad family rule in Syria has left a long trail of destruction in neighboring Lebanon.
In June 1976, Syria sent more than 25,000 soldiers into Lebanon to support government forces in Lebanon’s civil war. By the time hostilities ended in 1991, Syria was exercising total political, military and economic control over Lebanon.
In 2005, Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who publicly opposed Syrian hegemony, was assassinated in an attack in which senior Syrian officials have been heavily implicated. The killing sparked the Cedar Revolution, forcing expulsion of Syrian forces.
However, Syrian continued interfering in Lebanese politics through Hezbollah, which held enough power to block any decision failing to served Syrian and Iranian interests.
While Hezbollah may continue to operate in Lebanon under Iran’s umbrella, Assad’s fall severs direct access between the two countries, making it much more difficult for Iran to supply Hezbollah with men and arms. What’s more, Hezbollah’s newly signed ceasefire with Israel includes a commitment for Hezbollah’s eventual disarmament.
While it is unclear what the new Syria will look like, the civilian populace in Syria and Lebanon, both of whom have suffered decades of brutal rule, are able to rejoice at the departure of the man most responsible.
From The Conversation, an online repository of lay versions of academic research findings found at theconversation.com/us. Used with permission.
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