Linfield faces tough test at Whitworth Saturday
NWC rivals compete for conference crown Saturday in Spokane, in ‘Cats’ toughest test of the year
Saturday in Spokane, Washington, Linfield (8-1, 6-0) and Whitworth (9-0, 6-0) square off for the Northwest Conference title and the automatic berth to the NCAA DIII national championship tournament.
Last year the Pirates came into the CatDome and escaped with a 28-24 win, leaving the Wildcats out in the cold for the post season. Linfield has had this game circled on the calendar for the entire year, looking to even the score.
But what are the odds that the one-loss Wildcats can travel to the Pirates’ den, with likely cooler temperatures (31-43 degrees according to one weather guesser) and come home with a victory.
Let me introduce you to Logan Hansen.
Hansen is a structural engineer in the heartland of the country — near Des Moines, Iowa. He’s also a graduate of DIII number 11-ranked Wartburg. And Hansen is also a helluva a stats geek and DIII football fan.
He’s been fascinated by numbers for most of his life and brings his love of numbers and football to the game Saturday.
Here’s what his numbers have to say about the contest.
First and foremost he believes the game will likely be as close as last year’s season-ender with a lean to the ‘Cats.
“The two teams are actually dead-even when it comes to the overall offensive numbers,” Hansen said Wednesday afternoon by phone.
In fact both teams sliced through the Northwest Conference like the proverbial hot knife through butter.
Let’s look at some comparative scores:
Whitworth topped Pacific, 39-32, Linfield won by 68-28 margin; The Pirates bombed Willamette by a 48-0 score while the Wildcats shut out the Bearcats, 72-0. Last weekend in Newberg Whitworth had its way with George Fox, 31-0. A month ago the ‘Cats went into Newberg for a 47-7 win.
One of the big differences between the two squads is the Wildcats ability to score when they get into the red zone (inside the 20-yard line).
According to Hansen the Wildcats are number two in the nation at scoring when they get inside the red zone.
Hansen said the Whitworth offensive unit, a potent unit last season as the ‘Cats can attest, hasn’t missed a beat this season with Ryan Blair at QB. The defense has taken a step back this season according to Hansen’s stats.
But Hansen added, “The Whitworth offense basically runs through two guys — wide receiver Evan Liggett and their running back, Luis Salgado.
“Two-thirds of the Whitworth rushing offense runs through Salgado, and Blair has basically one go-to receiver accounting for the about one-third of the Pirate passing offense,” Hansen said.
The implication is that if the Linfield defense can stop Salgado (a tall order) or Liggett, the ‘Cats win.
Hansen’s stats also show the Linfield offense as multi-headed starting with a pair of QBs in senior Blake Eaton and junior Luke McNabb, who earned the NWC’s player of the week for his performance last weekend against PLU, when he played most of the second half after Eaton was nicked-up.
But there is more to the Linfield offense than a couple of trick ponies. First there is a stable of more than capable running backs led by senior Aaron Martinez. The ‘Cat quarterback duo spread the ball through the air among bevy receivers, including four fifth-year seniors. The four top pass catchers are Caleb Woodcock, with 29 for 489 yards and six TDs, Connor Wolfe, with 30 grabs for 446 yards, also with six TDs, MacClain Stoneking with 29 catches and one score, and Jacob Slifka with 32 receptions and four TDs.
While offensively the two teams look similar, Hansen notes Whitworth has a slight edge in yards per play, but Linfield has the advantage in points scored.
Linfield also appears to have the advantage in the kicking game, particularly in the area of field goals. Hansen said Whitworth tends to “go for it” more on fourth downs in the red zone, apparently because they don’t have as consistent of a field goal kicker.
Linfield on the other hand has a strong kicking team. That starts with freshman Andrew O’Dell who regularly boots kickoffs into the end zone. Gavin Dalziel handles field goals and PATs with aplomb while Thomas Tabor handles punting with a better than 43-yard average.
But the largest difference-maker in this contest, statistically speaking, is Linfield’s defense: across the board it is a little bit better in every category.
For example, Linfield bests Whitworth in each of the following statistical areas, despite the more difficult schedule: Points Allowed, Total Yards, Yards/Play, Rushing Yard/Play, Passing Yards/Play, Red Zone Efficiency, Third Downs Conversions, Fourth Down Conversions, and Sacks.
Hansen noted Linfield’s nonconference schedule was much more difficult than Whitworth’s adding, ”Whitworth didn’t play the caliber of teams of Linfield in the nonconference play such as University of Wisconsin, Oshkosh.”
Overall, in his national rankings, Hansen has the Wildcats ranked at number 10 whereas the Pirates come in at number 30.
While the numbers game makes the ‘Cats a favorite, by as slightly more than seven points, the game isn’t played on paper.
(Note: Logan Hansen’s web site can be found at hansenratings.github.io. He and another DIII aficionado, Keith Grabowski, also host a podcast entitle Coach and Coordinator. They recently hosted Linfield offensive coordinator Brett Elliott. You can hear it here: https://open.spotify.com/show
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