Whatchamacolumn: Presidential win predicted; but focus on local

Labor Day weekend led us directly and deeply into election season, with high stakes votes coming on local, regional, statewide and national candidates and issues.

Look for spirited campaigns for city mayor and council positions; county commissioner; state legislators, state secretary of state, state treasurer and state attorney general; members of Congress.

And, lest we forget, a new president of the United States. Hundreds of millions of dollars spent on that campaign will remind us of that more often than some will consider bearable. In just four days, Tuesday, Sept. 10, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will face off in debate at the National Constitutional Center in Philadelphia.

This week, The New York Times published an informative/entertaining video of Dr. Allan Lichtman predicting the Harris-Trump election winner. Lichtman, a history professor and quiz show champion, has used his “13 Keys” to successfully predict 9 of the past 10 presidential winners, missing only on Bush vs. Gore in 2000.

Whatchamacolumn

Jeb Bladine is president and publisher of the News-Register.

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Lichtman calls those keys “big picture true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House party.” He worked in 1981 with geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok to develop the keys, based on 120 years of presidential outcomes, and used them to predict Trump’s win in 2016 and loss in 2020.

Challenger Trump, said Lichtman, wins keys related to Democrat loss of House seats in the 2022 mid-term election; lack of a White House incumbent; and lack of high-level charisma for Harris.

Harris, he said, wins eight of the keys: Avoiding primary challenge; no 3rd party candidate; strong short-term economy (not in recession); long-term economic growth at least as good as in previous term; demonstration of major changes in national policy; lack of sustained social unrest; lack of administration scandals showing corruption; and challenger charisma limited to a narrow base of voters.

That leaves two foreign policy keys — successes and failures — which Lichtman called “tricky” while not making a call. But even if both keys went Trump’s way, he said, the final tally would be 8-5 in favor of Harris. And so, Lichtman declared, Kamala Harris will become the next president of the United States.

Perhaps, some say, but the fat lady won’t be singing until all the votes are counted. One thing’s for sure: Yamhill County may do a three-peat by supporting Trump in November, but Oregon is so sure to send its eight electoral votes to Harris that we may be spared the overwhelming campaign activity headed to the battleground states.

We need to focus on elections that will determine policies of our local and state governments, including the massive tax increase on businesses proposed by Ballot Measure 118. Oregon, at every level, needs more conservative spending/taxing/fee policies — and more bipartisan decision-making — than we’ve seen over the past decade, and that kind of change starts at the ballot box.

Time to study up — mail-in ballots will be out statewide in just six weeks.

Jeb Bladine can be reached at jbladine@newsregister.com or 503-687-1223.