Randy Stapilus: Slate of independents to test major party disaffection
What’s new is the changed electoral strategy of the Independent Party of Oregon, the state’s third largest with 154,862 registrants.
That’s not a huge portion of all Oregon voters. It lags well behind the Democrats’ 981,358 and the Republicans’ 730,080.
But considering both major parties have been declining, to the point where they significantly trail the nonaffiliated voter faction of 1.2 million, you have to wonder what the attraction of IPO candidates to disaffected Ds and Rs might mean.
Up to now, in its nearly two decades of existence, the IPO has focused on cross-endorsing candidates, supporting either Democrats or Republicans meeting with the centrist group’s approval.
In a March 26 statement, the IPO noted, “In 2022 and 2024, the party sided heavily with Democratic legislators in the Oregon House and Senate, helping the Democrats to secure their current majorities through highly successful campaigns in legislative swing districts.”
How large the IPO’s role actually was could be debated, though. So this year, the IPO is changing its strategy to running its own candidates under its own banner.
Some cross endorsements might still be announced this summer. However, the party described that prospect this way: “if any.”
The party’s focus now is on five legislative races featuring nominees, already selected in the party’s caucus process, who boast significant local profiles or previous political success. They’re not complete unknowns, as are so many minor party contenders.
The most prominent was in the first of the group to be nominated back in January: former Republican Charlie Conrad, who won the strongly Republican-leaning District 12 House seat, representing parts of Lane and Linn counties, in 2022.
After breaking with the party caucus on transgender and abortion issues, he lost the 2024 Republican primary to Darin Harbick, with only 17.2% of the vote. Harbick went on to win the general election and now is seeking a second term.
So what are Conrad’s chances as an independent?
The unknown element is the nature of local Republicans. Do they stick fiercely with the party or do enough break off and join non-GOP voters to allow him a chance?
There is a Democratic candidate, too: Amber Smith. Another unknown is how many Democrats might break for Conrad instead if he looks like a more serious competitor.
One other IPO contest also features an incumbent: Democratic Rep. Susan McLain of Forest Grove, most prominent in recent years on transportation issues.
She is well established politically, having held her seat since her first election in 2014, and served as a Metro councilor before that. She ran unopposed in 2024.
This year, she has a Democratic challenger in the primary, but has no Republican challenger lying in wait in November. The IPO has nominated Brian Schimmel of Forest Grove, a city councilor long active in local nonprofit groups.
Given the absence of a Republican contender, and the contentiousness of transportation finance this year, might Schimmel be able to pull enough support from the center to beat the veteran Democratic legislator? The answer again lies partly in the question of party loyalty.
Two of the open seats the IPO is targeting are held by Republican senators disqualified from running again because they participated in a lengthy walkout.
In the 6th Senate District, encompassing heavily Republican parts of Lane and Linn counties, Cedric Hayden’s departure drew three Republican candidates — Nicole De Graff, Jack Tibbetts and Rep. Jami Cate, R- Lebanon — along with Democrat Sierrah Williams.
That seems to limit the opening for the IPO candidate, Patrick Starnes, who was an IPO candidate for governor in 2018 and has run previously as a Democrat as well. Still, a message centered on affordability and breaking down the party structures could have some resonance.
The other disqualified Republican senator in this group, Suzanne Weber of Tillamook, won her seat four years ago in a competitive district. It includes the House district of Rep, Cyrus Javadi of Tillamook, who switched parties from Republican to Democrat earlier this year.
The impact of Javadi’s switch has yet to be determined. However, it is likely to stir ripple effects of some kind.
The Senate district’s Republican and Democratic primaries are both competitive. The winners will be getting an IPO challenge in November from Melisa Finkle of Rockaway Beach, described as “a state employee and union leader focused on rural healthcare, transparency, and worker advocacy.” And the large number of non-affiliated voters in the district may make her run significant.
Finally, the IPO has a candidate in the 40th House District. It lies in the Oregon City area, scene of many tight races in the past.
The seat now is held by Annessa Hartman, a Democrat who won two years ago with 55.8% of the vote. Hartman, battling cervical cancer, has temporarily stepped back from politics and two Democrats and two Republicans have filed to replace her.
The IPO candidate here — Pat Hubbell, is a pharmacist focused on medical issues — may have the least obvious path to a general election win among the five. But in this close-call district, with no incumbent and the outcome of the primaries uncertain, his presence on the ballot could have an impact.
Five case studies.
Maybe the non-major party registrants break the way they usually do. But this fall, when we parse the numbers, we’ll get our best chance in a couple of generations to find out.
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