Mel Gurtov: There’s a method to Netanyahu’s madness
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s re-election chances election hinge on carrying his war Hezbollah and keeping the fires burning with Iran. At the same time, he must assuage Donald Trump, who has called Netanyahu “crazy” for undermining US-Iran peace talks by continuing military action in Lebanon and trading fire with Iran.
Last week, Iran fired missiles at Israel. Against Trump’s wishes, Israel retaliated by bombing a petrochemical plant in Iran and Hezbollah positions near the Lebanese capital of Beirut.
The US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was a fiction anyway. No sooner was it announced than it was violated by both sides. And in fact, it was imposed on Hezbollah without its consent in the first place.
Hezbollah explicitly rejected the terms, noting they did not call for any concessions on Israel’s part. A Shiite leader close to Hamas said Hezbollah would stop fighting when Israel agreed to withdraw completely from Lebanon — something Israel is not going to do.
“To truly stop this,” Netanyahu said,” we have concluded that we need security zones” as part of a “fundamental change” in light of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack. “Perhaps when Hezbollah is dismantled,” he said, “we will reconsider.”
Thus, Israeli air strikes continue, notwithstanding Netanyahu’s supposed acquiescence to Trump’s request he order them to a halt. As the New York Times puts it: “For all the diplomatic fanfare surrounding the newest ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, the reality on the ground ? was grimly familiar: Israeli airstrikes, Hezbollah rockets and little sign that the war had stopped.”
Netanyahu’s situation would seem shaky. His determination to “dismantle” Hezbollah, like his aim to “destroy” Hamas, is probably unrealizable. And it risks renewed Iranian missile strikes on Israel, as well as other Gulf states.
Yet Israel’s far-right cabinet supports continuing to go after Hezbollah, as does much of the Israeli public. And Netanyahu’s leadership thrives on warfare — incentive enough for him to defy Trump.
However, at some point, defiance might also become costly, as Iran has been firm on ending Israeli attacks on Hezbollah as a key to reaching agreement with the US.
Trump keeps telling Netanyahu to stop fighting. And he keeps saying a peace agreement with Iran is just a few days away.
But here’s where Netanyahu has hope for his strategy:
The fighting in Lebanon is only one of several outstanding issues that are obstructing a US-Iran agreement. Another is Iran’s nuclear enrichment. A third is Iran’s frozen assets.
In a June 5 interview, a top military adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei told CNN any deal would require the U.S. unfreeze $24 billion in Iranian assets — half once an agreement is signed, the other half later. Trump would see that as a larger-scale version of what Obama agreed to in a 2015 nuclear deal and surely reject it.
The likely future is more rounds of fighting and fewer opportunities for the U.S. and Iran to overcome their differences. Netanyahu is banking on it.
Mel Gurtov, syndicated by PeaceVoice, holds emeritus professor rank in political science at Portland State University.
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