Primary would best serve us by returning Kotek, Drazan

There are no fewer than 27 candidates for the Oregon governorship out on the hustings so far this year — 10 Democrats and 14 Republicans seeking major party nominations, one unaffiliated candidate seeking write-in votes in both major party primaries and two minor party candidates waiting to take on the winners in November.

But let’s be realistic about three things:

First, Gov. Tina Kotek is heavily favored to sweep past her little-known and lightly financed rivals to claim the Democratic nomination for a second term. There is no such thing as a sure thing in politics, but this one comes mighty close.

Second, being charitable, only four candidates have any realistic hope of prevailing on the Republican side — Christine Drazan, Chris Dudley, Ed Diehl and Danielle Bethell. Being less charitable, you could cut that to Drazan and Dudley, each of whom has won a previous gubernatorial nod.

Third, the chances of a minor party candidate mounting a credible bid in the fall, let alone capturing the governorship, approach zero.

This year’s cadre of Democratic hopefuls includes street rabbi Forest Alexander, dubbed Rabbi Fora by her associates; salesman and inventor James Atkinson, known for his Endless Cup water bottle; and progressive activist Brittany Jones, boasting the unlikely combination of U.S. Army, LGBTQ and Native American affiliations. It even includes a former McMinnville resident and Mac High student — digital creator Donnie Beckwith, now of Portland.

The GOP field, equally eclectic, features social media influencer David Medina, pardoned by President Trump of criminal charges in the 2021 Capitol riot; minister DeAngelo Turner, who served 32 years in prison before changing his life through religion; and recently matriculated grad student Martin Ward, who ran for Portland mayor as someone who was not employed, had never been employed and was “squatting at my parents’ house.”

Then there’s writer J. Schuberth — yes, just J. — who’s campaigning in a full-body pencil costume. Under no illusions about winning, Schuberth is urging voters from both parties to write in The Pencil in a bid to make literacy a higher priority in Oregon.

That’s not to say the field’s less conventional candidates aren’t serious, focused and well-meaning. By and large, they appear fervently invested in their causes and platforms. But winning Oregon’s premier statewide race requires a deep reservoir of credentials, experience and funding, which moves the bar out of reach for most.

On the Democratic side, Kotek stands pretty much alone in that regard. She has not drawn any challenger of serious means and stature.

Armed with a bachelor’s in religious studies and master’s in international studies, Kotek launched her career as a public policy advocate — a well-trod path for Democrats.

She won election to the Oregon House in 2006 and quickly began moving into leadership ranks. Advancing to the House speakership in 2013 set the table for her eventual gubernatorial run.

Even with veteran Democrat Betsy Johnson making it a three-way race in the general, via a well-financed campaign as an independent, Kotek prevailed over Drazan by almost 67,000 votes. Her party seems to think she has earned a re-election bid, and we concur.

It’s a much closer call for us on the Republican side, but on balance, we are inclined to think Drazan also deserves another shot.

Dudley’s thoughtful moderation and detached outsider’s perspective hold appeal, but not enough for us to overcome Drazan’s long record of faithful and effective political engagement. While we feel her party’s hard rightward turn has tended to marginalize its competitiveness, particularly on Oregon’s populous west flank, we feel she better represents its predominant rank and file thinking.

It will be tougher for Republicans this year without a third party spoiler of Johnson’s stature siphoning Democratic votes, but Kotek now has a record to defend. That makes her more susceptible to pointed and detailed attack, which Drazan is better prepared to deliver than Dudley.

Drazan has followed the same basics as Kotek did to political prominence in Oregon.

After earning a degree in communications at George Fox University, she worked as chief of staff for House Speaker Mark Simmons and served as political coordinator for the powerful Oregon Restaurant and Lodging Association.

She was elected to the House in 2018, and to the GOP’s top House leadership post the following year. After losing 2022 gubernatorial run, she returned to the House, then moved to the Senate last year to fill a vacancy.

Like Kotek, she has a deep familiarity with how things work in Salem — an area where Dudley, widely considered her most formidable rival, is notably lacking.
Dudley has moved in totally different circles.

After graduating from Yale, he used athleticism, basketball prowess and a 6-foot-11 frame to carve out a 16-year career as an NBA center — one that included stints with the Portland Trail Blazers from 1993 to 1997 and 2001 to 2003. He subsequently settled in Lake Oswego, where he launched corporate and wealth management ventures.

Dudley was recruited to seek the GOP gubernatorial nomination in 2010. Combining fiscal conservatism with social issues moderation, he won by 23,000 votes in the primary, but lost by 22,000 in the general, falling to John Kitzhaber.

We endorsed Dudley in that race, based on “strong beliefs that Oregon needs new directions to regain our economic and social health.” But we indicated it was a narrow nod, and if elected, he would need to surround himself with a team of top-notch advisers.

In 2012, he moved his business ventures to San Diego. He indicated his political career was probably over, but retained a vacation home in Black Butte.

He moved back with his family in 2020, settling in Sisters. He didn’t resurface on the political stage, however, until announcing his 2026 gubernatorial bid.

Dudley is bright, polished and personable. And thanks in large measure to Phil Knight of Nike, he’s also well-financed.

That echoes his 2010 campaign, where Knight was among Oregon business and industry leaders who not only helped him substantially outspend Kitzhaber, but also powered him to then-record spending for an Oregon gubernatorial candidate.

He demonstrated limited facility with Oregon policy issues, though, and we see no reason to think his command has improved over the 16 intervening years, 10 spent living and working in his old high school stomping grounds of San Diego.

Drazan has been fighting policy wars with Kotek here in the trenches in Oregon, first hand. We think that makes her better prepared to campaign against the incumbent’s record in office.

Diehl parleyed a Stanford engineering degree into a successful career in the Oregon tech industry. Elected to a four-year term in the House in 2023, he’s using his leadership of the campaign referring an opposition gas tax measure to voters as the linchpin of his gubernatorial bid.

Bethell got her political start on the Salem-Keizer School Board, then won election to the Marion County Board of Commissioners. She has developed a core of support among rank-and-file Republicans, but is also facing a state ethics investigation at a very inopportune time.

We find Diehl’s political track record too thin, and Bethell’s too tarnished, to compete against Drazan’s. Both also fall well short in name recognition and financial backing, which are strong suits of Dudley’s.

Kotek seems far and away the best standard bearer for Democrats. We believe a Drazan re-run would, all things considered, give Republicans their best shot at knocking her off.