Mark Davis: Stop expanding the UGB; inventory is already ample
An urban growth boundary is established to hold a 20-year supply of land for housing and businesses. But just four years after expanding its UGB, the city of McMinnville is once again insisting it needs a bigger one.
This excessive proposed expansion has the following defects:
- It costs the citizens money.
- It ignores land already in the UGB.
- It’s based on outdated and unrealistic data.
Let’s take these one at a time:
The cost to citizens
Some people say there’s nothing wrong with excessive UGB expansions, because the land will just sit there until it’s needed. In fact, inflating population projections to support future UGB needs leads to higher costs for all of us.
That’s because these projections will be used to support capital spending for road, sewer, water and other infrastructure projects, leading to increased charges laying the groundwork for growth that’s actually decades away.
Adding unneeded land to the UGB also encourages speculators to try and develop the property farthest from the city core first — land that requires expensive road and utility development that taxpayers and ratepayers then have to support. Compact growth is less expensive.
Land already in the UGB
Planning documents indicate we have 1,693 acres of vacant buildable land available inside the current UGB for future homes and businesses. Some of it has remained in the UGB since 1981, but 662 acres was just voted into the UGB by the city council in 2020.
Despite claims that we lack land for housing, none of the land brought into the UGB in 2020 has yet been developed. In fact, the city has not even completed the planning activities necessary to allow development of most of the new inventory.
One thing is for sure: Adding more land to the UGB will do nothing to address the current affordable housing crisis in our community.
Outdated and unrealistic data
The need for more land is premised almost entirely on a projected city population of 47,498 in 2041. But that figure is no longer accurate.
The most recent projection, done this year, estimates McMinnville’s 2041 population at 40,343. If that’s the case, it means fewer than half the new residents the city is planning for will actually move here.
In fact, the latest projection for 2074, some 50 years hence, is 45,678. That’s fewer than the city is projecting for 2041.
For those who care about the numbers, by law, all such population projections are calculated by Portland State University’s Population Research Center. They can be found at www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts.
The other ridiculous statistical claim in the city’s UGB expansion bid is a need for 316 acres of buildable land for parks by 2041.
In the last 25 years, the city developed only about 50 acres of new parkland. Its new parks plan, just approved in June, calls only for developing another 49 acres over the next 20 years.
The estimated cost to develop 49 acres is $60 million. At that rate, developing 316 acres would run a totally unaffordable $387 million.
The city’s UGB expansion proposal was unveiled last year. It has already undergone scrutiny by the McMinnville Planning Commission and City Council, the Department of Land Conservation and Development and the Land Conservation and Development Commission. The courts could be next.
The city is using a sequential UGB process where the numbers are settled first, then efficiency measures are applied to reduce the land need. Only then is property selected for addition to the UGB.
The city started out asking for 484 acres. Due to two errors in the documents, pointed out by citizens reviewing the plan, it has since reduced its request to 346 acres.
The entire process is based on legal interpretation, not actual need, so any final outcome between 0 and 346 acres remains possible.
I approached the city about negotiating the issues remaining after the initial scrutiny. I was told that the legal process needed to play out first.
That’s fine, but that process includes the current appeals, which the city complains are costing time and money.
The fact is, the UGB expansion plan itself is a waste of time and money. That’s because no additional land is actually needed to support projected growth through 2041.
Even if we underwent an unexpected growth spurt, the city is required to update its residential land needs every eight years. The next one is due in 2032, allowing plenty of time to add land then.
The city has a hard-working staff and the city council is trying its best to improve the city. But there are demographic and economic forces at work here, over which the city has very limited control.
It’s time to stop chasing imaginary growth scenarios and start spending the city’s time and money getting the land already in the UGB ready for development.
Comments
Philip Higgins
I feel that Mark Davis and 1000 Friends are directly responsible for the headline a few weeks back: "Rent Crisis Lands Mac on State watch list. More than a quarter of the tenants pay more than half their income for housing".
I also feel that 1000 Friends of Yamhill County is responsible for the people living in RVs in McMinnvilles Parks due to lack of housing, and the financial stress on our small farmers looking to find ways to participate in Agri-tourism.
They have litigiously meddled in property rights and the City's processes over the last 20+ years costing the taxpayers millions of dollars in lost staff time and legal proceedings.
Shameful.
Don Dix
Phillip Higgins - It only takes one appeal to stop the process until resolved. This entry from NR article from Nov. 2020 as to how they 'meddle' --
'After working on an urban growth boundary expansion plan for 26 years and navigating a series of legal challenges, the city of McMinnville is close to voting on a plan that would add 662.4 buildable acres to accommodate around 1,500 new dwelling units into the urban growth boundary.'
26 years of legal challenges? More like obstruction! City costs to answer those challenges way over 7 figure $, to say nothing of the rising price of buildable land caused by constant delays over those 26 yrs. (supply and demand).
One other thing Mr. Higgins -- unfortunately it's impossible to shame those who have no conscience and care little about any collateral damage as long as the mission (delay, delay, delay) is successful. Quite a legacy, eh?
Don Dix
About the writer --'Mark Davis has lived in McMinnville for more than 30 years, and has tracked city planning proposals most of that time.'
First-- Davis has attended nearly every council meeting, which is his right. Some might call it participation, while others might see it as 'fishing' for 'gotchas'.
Second -- Davis has been here 30 yrs. -- The land use zealots here formed around 1994, 30 yrs. ago -- not a stretch to see a connection, rather than a mere coincidence. And his 'views' are consistently in lockstep with whatever 'the group' complains about (which is a lot), dispelling his claim of independency.
Third -- Davis failed to mention he was right in the middle of the 26-year expensive slog that McMinnville had to endure to pass the last UGB expansion (2020). Now, nearly 4 years later (2021), the dance begins anew -- delay, delay, delay.
Otis
92 houses currently for sale inside Mac city limits on zillow. That puts Mac at around 27 listings per 10K of population. That is one of the lowest rates of homes for sale in the country.
leo
Both Higgins and Dix want to make money building houses in the UGB area. That's why they are mad, not because Davis is correct in his comments.
Don Dix
leo -- when will your mind be returning from fantasyland? Or is that it's permanent residence?
madmacs
Don Dix,
You're certainly singing a different tune about land use appeals now, the exact same process was used to derail the Yamhelas Westsider trail.
Don Dix
madmacs -- my sentiment about land use appeals has never changed, so there's that fact.