Randy Stapilus: Hill steepens for GOP in Oregon’s 5th District

About the writer: Randy Stapilus is a former reporter and editor who has turned to writing and publishing books from Carlton. He has devoted his career to covering politics and government in Oregon, Washington and Idaho. In addition to publishing books for himself and others through the Ridenbaugh Press, he maintains a blog at www.ridenbaugh.com. He also continues to write for print and online news publications, including the Salem-based Oregon Capital Chronicle, where this piece originally appeared.

In 2022, after Oregon’s new map for congressional districts was set in place, the state emerged with a high number of competitive U.S. House districts:

Three out of six were Democratic-leaning, but not by enough to lock out Republicans. Nationally, fewer than a fifth of districts usually meet that description.

The 2022 election gave Democrats two of those three seats, though both contests were competitive. Then-Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle won in the 4th District, which includes Eugene, Corvallis and much of Oregon’s coast, while then-state Rep. Andrea Salinas captured the Willamette Valley’s 6th District.

But voters elected Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer in the more closely matched 5th District, based around Clackamas County on the west side and Deschutes County on the east.

In 2024, even while Republicans did well nationally, Hoyle and Salinas seemed to solidify their positions, while Democrat Janelle Bynum ousted Chavez-DeRemer in another close race.

This year, the 4th and 6th seem to be slipping out of easy reach for Republicans.

You could make an argument the 5th District, which flipped control twice after two very close races, ought to be a hot battleground once again. But it isn’t looking that way.

Two years ago, the Cook Political Report regularly rated the Oregon’s 5th a “toss-up.” This year, it rates the district “likely Democratic,” and the national parties are backing that up by seeming less interested in it than in the last two elections.

Two Republicans are competing in this year’s primary: Deschutes County Commissioner Patti Adair and law school student and activist Jonathan Lockwood.

Adair is the clear frontrunner. She reported raising substantial funds in the first quarter of the year — about $272,000. Lockwood didn’t report any, which means he raised less than $5,000.

Lockwood’s website reports no endorsements from fellow Republicans, while Adair’s endorsement page is packed with them. The list includes leading Republican gubernatorial contenders Christine Drazan and Ed Diehl, numerous legislators and county officials, and the Oregon Farm Bureau and Young Republicans.

Adair has been organizing since at least last fall, and it shows. An Adair loss in the primary would be a major upset.

But the general election is another story.

Start with fundraising. Bynum’s campaign kitty already stands at a daunting $3 million.

Adair, a Sisters resident, has a political base in Deschutes County, where she has twice been elected commissioner in partisan elections.

But that base seems far from overwhelming. She won with 50.5% in 2018 and 50.9% in 2022, results even closer than the last two contests in the 5th Congressional District.

The year may be critical, too.

Like the leading Republican contenders for governor, Adair has barely if at all mentioned the name of Donald Trump, even though control of the U.S. House is a key factor in what the second half of this Trump term looks like, and is a central issue in congressional races nationally. The public pages of her website appear to lack specific references to the president, even in a press release criticizing a recent Bynum budget vote in which Trump was directly involved.

She has ties to Trump, however.

In 2016 she was pledged to Trump as a delegate to the Republican National Convention. The Trump administration has filtered into her commission activities as well.

In February 2025, she was part of the 2-1 commission majority opting to end the county Diversity, Equity, Inclusion and Access Committee, described as working on matters such as “pay disparities between male and female county employees, improving access for hearing and visually impaired residents and other accessibility initiatives.” The decision was locally controversial and it followed orders by Trump to end federal DEI activities.

Adair said at the meeting, “We’re following the president from the top? The federal government is in charge of a lot of funding that comes to Deschutes County, and I would hate to lose it.”

All that will provide grist for Bynum, the almost certain Democratic nominee. She does have an opponent in progressive activist Zeva Rosenbaum, a first-time candidate, but Rosenbaum has reported no campaign receipts or spending to date.

A sense of what may be coming from Bynum’s campaign might be drawn from the opening lines of her comments on Trump’s state of the union address:

“Tonight I watched President Trump spend the majority of his speech lying about the state of our economy, demonizing immigrants, attacking voting rights and spewing more of the same divisive BS. I can’t say I’m surprised. It’s past time the president starts doing his job and putting the American people first.”

In 2026, arguments like that may make the 5th District Republican campaign a distinctly uphill journey.