Trump's reversal on India plays into China's hands
Reversal on India plays into China’s hands
In 2019, Donald Trump and Narendra Modi paraded their bromance with a 50,000-person “Howdy Modi” rally in Houston. They followed that up with a “Namaste Trump” 100,000-person event in India. As recently as February, Trump lavished praise on Modi, saying the two countries had “a mega partnership for prosperity.”
Trump was the darling of the Indian diaspora in the US. He seemed quite willing to ignore Modi’s record as an aggressive Hindu nationalist who has sparked violence against the Muslim minority, the two sharing an admiration for strongman rule and an obliviousness to human rights.
But that was then and this is now.
Trump has revoked the enduring friendship with a 25% tariff on Indian goods and an additional 25% tariff surcharge in protest of India’s continuing purchase of Russian oil. The U.S. trade deficit with India was also mentioned as grounds for the recent divorce.
But according to Bloomberg, Trump might actually be miffed that India didn’t give him the credit he claimed for helping India and Pakistan reach a cease-fire in their May war.
“Although the US never made a direct request for Modi to acknowledge Trump’s role in the ceasefire,” Bloomberg reports, “India saw a shift in tone from the White House after that phone call, according to the officials in New Delhi.” The report is easy to believe considering how much Trump covets a Nobel Peace Prize for his work as a “peace President.”
Now that India is out of favor, Trump has declared its economy, along with Russia’s, “dead.” This is the same India whose high-tech economy is considered one of the world’s brightest stars.
With Trump, everything is personal. He’s upset with Apple, Eli Lilly, Blackstone and other U.S. multinationals for setting up shop in India rather than investing more in the U.S., and Trump’s tariffs leave them high and dry.
Trump recently announced that Apple would be investing $100 billion in U.S.-based manufacturing in compensation, but Apple has made such unsubstantiated pledges before.
Failure to think strategically can be costly.
India had long been viewed by the U.S., even in Trump’s first term, as a counterweight to China. Recent India-China border talks suggest a lowering of tensions and an emphasis on diplomacy, following a history of conflict over the last 60 or so years.
The U.S.-India falling out will help Beijing and New Delhi find new sources of partnership. Modi has already been in touch with Beijing, whose ambassador to India is gloating over Trump’s bullying on social media, and he will shortly be visiting China for the first time in seven years.
Trump’s team may want to consider whether a trade penalty was worth the cost of driving Modi into Putin’s arms as well.
Kurt Campbell, Biden’s deputy secretary of state, had it right when he said: “If you tell India that it has to sacrifice its relationship with Russia, then Indian strategists are going to do the exact opposite.” And they did.
After Trump’s tariff announcement, Modi’s foreign minister visited Moscow. Meanwhile, Modi got on the phone with Vladimir Putin.
Modi spoke glowingly of his Russian overture, bragging, “Had a very good and detailed conversation with my friend President Putin. I thanked him for sharing the latest developments on Ukraine. We ... reaffirmed our commitment to further deepen the India-Russia Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership.”
India’s exports to Russia will now expand, and India will dispatch workers to Russia with skills in IT, construction and engineering to help address labor shortages. India’s imports of Russian oil will continue, unaffected by Trump’s threats.
Another Trump strategic error is simultaneously alienating not one but two, leading voices in the Global South — India and Brazil, both of which are founding members of the BRICS group, along with Russia, China and South Africa. Every one of those five countries is now at odds with Trump, who has threatened all of them with high tariffs if they adopt their own currency for trade transactions instead of the dollar.
Modi will no doubt tell his BRICS colleagues that India’s economy simply cannot take the hit that Trump’s tariffs will create. You can expect that China and Russia will be first to step up and help in response.
India does have other ways to fight back against Trump. Its foreign ministry has termed the U.S. decision “extremely unfortunate,” and pledged, “India will take all necessary steps to protect its national interests.”
The Indian press has been less diplomatic. One well-known journalist, Barkha Dutt, said in a CNN interview by Fareed Zakaria that no one in India believes Trump’s stated reasons for the tariff increases.
Dutt called Trump “infantile,” “inane,” a “bully.” A boycott of US goods is underway, and India has petitioned the World Trade Organization to act against Trump’s tariffs.
Modi may also take a cue from President Lula in Brazil by promising $5.5 billion in credits to exporters and postponement of their taxes in response to Trump’s tariffs.
In any other administration, nothing India has done or said would undermine close ties. But this is the Trump era, in which personal pique and trade have replaced strategic thinking and policy based on the national interest.
Sadly, Trump is playing a loser’s game.
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